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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-08-01T12:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-08-01T12:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26288/-1
CME Note: Faint fast jet CME in the NW. No definitive source has been found; it could be an eruption in Active Region 13386 starting ~2023-08-01T10:30Z, with dimming and post eruptive arcades. Arrival signature starting at 2023-08-05T02:10Z was attributed to a wider 2023-08-02T09:12Z CME with expected more direct hit at earth.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-04T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/26295/1
Model Inputs:
2023-08-01T12:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=22.0, Lat.=17.0, Speed=1369.0, HalfAngle=11.0, Time21.5=2023-08-01T14:30Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-08-04T22:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-REx with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-08-05T16:00Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-08-03T16:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-08-04T20:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_143000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_143000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_143000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_143000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_143000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_143000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_143000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_143000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_143000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_143000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_143000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_143000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230801_143000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 73.20 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-08-01T20:48Z

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